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[/media-credit]It all comes down to this! The regular season will officially come to a close and the post-season will officially begin after the dust settles Saturday Night.
Officially, nine of 12 tickets to this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup have been given out, with a record 14 drivers still in the hunt for one of the three remaining spots in The Chase. Previously, the most drivers mathematically eligible for one of the unclaimed spots in The Chase for the Sprint Cup heading into Richmond was seven, dating back to 2005.
If you’re wondering if your driver has a guaranteed spot on The Chase stage, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Ryan Newman are all guaranteed spots in the Top-10 for the first race of the 2011 Chase. These drivers will also receive bonus points in The Chase for their winning efforts during the first 26 races of the season.
The other driver who has a guarantee from NASCAR to put his toys in the box this year is Brad Keselowski. Keselowski has made his position known by way of his three wins on the season, two of which coming in the last five races. In the words of my high school wrestling coach, “Matty, it’s not always about being good all the time, but being good at the RIGHT time.” Keselowski has been on a roll heading into The Chase, finishing outside the top-three just once in the past five races.
Atlanta Recap
Rain, Rain, Go Away! was the tune sang last week in Atlanta, after the Sprint Cup race had to be postponed from Sunday evening until Tuesday morning. At a racetrack known for close finishes, the race Tuesday was nothing short of what was expected out of a race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
My winner pick fought diligently to take the lead about ¾ through the race, but fell a half-second short of victory to race-winner Jeff Gordon on lap 325. Jimmie Johnson rolled off the starting grid in 17th place on Tuesday, and threw the book at his car in an effort to make it drive better.
“The first two runs the car was pretty bad. And Chad made some great adjustments on pit road to get the car in the track to where I could carry any speed in and through the center and then use the throttle off. Before that I was on ice and couldn’t drive the car” said Johnson following his runner-up finish.
Johnson was even in the lead with 50 to go, but finally surrendered the lead to a charging Jeff Gordon, who really had the car to beat on Tuesday Afternoon. Still, I can not complain about a second-place finish following my blunder just two weeks ago at Bristol.
My Dark Horse pick handed me my worst finish of the year on Tuesday. A 36th place finish was what I had to show for a Dark Horse pick last week due to an accident involving Juan Montoya and my pick, Clint Bowyer on lap 243.
Bowyer earned his career-best starting position for the race Tuesday morning by laying down an absolutely flawless lap on Saturday, good enough to start second. For the majority of the first half of the race, Bowyer was a staple in the Top-10, but after contact with Montoya on lap 243, Bowyer found himself waiting in the garage while the “Helping Hands” pit crew worked diligently to get the No. 33 Chevrolet back in racing order.
Bowyer had this to say about the incident with Montoya: “We had a really good Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet today and got wrecked by another competitor who was racing stupid and not showing any patience. It sounds like we are going to have to win next week to make the Chase for (the NASCAR Sprint Cup) and we run well in Richmond. We had a top-10 car this weekend and I expect us to have one in Richmond. This team isn’t going down without a fight.”
Richmond Picks
This week, I will do something I’ve yet to do this season with Matty’s picks…pick a driver two weeks in a row. I might get some backlash for doing it, but its really the right thing to do this week.
Winner Pick
My winner pick this week was my Dark Horse last week and is the guy to beat this week not only because of his history at RIR, but for the passion he will be driving with on Saturday night.
Clint Bowyer stands on the outside looking in on The Chase for the Sprint Cup now in 14th place heading into the race Saturday Night. He lost two spots with his finish last week at Atlanta and is hungry to show that he deserves to race for the Sprint Cup this year. He needs to win Saturday night to make the last 10 races meaningful this season, and needs help (not in a positive way) from Denny Hamlin if he has any chance of making The Chase.
6th place seems to be Bowyer’s favorite finishing spot the past few years at RIR, with three 6th place finishes in the past four races at the track. He did have the opportunity to visit Victory Lane at Richmond in May of 2009, and boasts a 9.5 average finish at RIR.
Bowyer may be a ringer pick for the race Saturday night, and judging by his practice speeds earlier today, he will make things interesting not only in the 400-lap race, but for the last few covenanted spots in The Chase.
Dark Horse Pick
My Dark Horse pick is also a guy who needs a win plus some help from other drivers to make the 2011 Chase field. Marcos Ambrose has one win this year already, and sits just outside the Top-20 in points in 21st position.
In order to be a part of the Chase field, Marcos Ambrose would have to win the Wonderful Pistachios 400 Saturday Night, but also enter the Top-20 in the points standings to seal up the second and final Wild Card spot this season.
Now, the driver sitting 20th in points seems to be little to no threat to win Saturday night, as he has yet to finish any better than 16th at the D-shaped short-track, a positive statistic for Ambrose. Marcos Ambrose sits seven points behind Menard in 21st, but a win out of him and an average finish from Paul Menard would give him enough of a points gain to end up in a Wild Card spot for The Chase.
Ambrose is hungry to show he belongs among NASCAR’s elite with a spot in the 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup. He does have two Top-10’s at Richmond, including a 5th-place finish last year in this exact race. I know it may seem like a real long-shot, but I’ve seen stranger things happen…
This wraps up the regular season for Matty’s Picks, but stay tuned next week for my thoughts on the start of the Chase and my picks for Chicagoland.
Until Next Time…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!
