After a couple of seasons under this current Chase format for the Sprint Cup Series, it’s hard not to call it a success.
The 2014 season had Kevin Harvick, the fastest driver for most of the year who was hampered early on by growing pains from his new team, win the championship by beating winless Ryan Newman at Homestead in a thrilling finish. The following year featured Kyle Busch having the greatest comeback in the history of racing by winning four races in the summer after missing the first 11 races of the year before winning the championship by winning at Homestead.
Has it brought excitement to the championship race? Absolutely. Has it brought excitement to the battle to get into the Chase? Not really.
It can be easy to make it into the Chase. Last season Paul Menard won no races and sat 15th in points following Richmond. He ended up making the Chase. In 2014, Kurt Busch won at Martinsville and struggled to 20th in points after Richmond. Aric Almirola won a race shortened by rain and was 22nd in points after Richmond. A.J. Allmendinger won a race at Watkins Glen but only had four top 10s in the regular season and was 23rd in points after Richmond. Not only were all three locked into the Chase just by starting at Richmond, all three were also eliminated a few races later at Dover.
If it becomes this easy to make the playoffs, the regular season will become pretty useless. College basketball ratings are pretty bad in the regular season where many of the big teams are simply fighting for a better seeding instead of just getting into the playoffs. No matter how much hype from television or NASCAR, it’s hard to get that excited about Kurt Busch winning a race a few weeks ago and “locking his Chase spot” (Not really, but whatever) when he sat second in points after the race regardless. Right now Ryan Blaney would be in the Chase in spite of averaging only a 16.7 average finish and sitting 16th in points.
But at least Chase seeding means something, right? No. If the Chase started tomorrow, points leader Kevin Harvick would have just as many points as 13th place, Denny Hamlin. Hamlin may have won Daytona but he has had a bad season otherwise and shouldn’t be tied with the points leader in seeding. With seeding based entirely on wins, points don’t matter that much.
And even with it being based on wins, it’s only three points per win. That’s a measly three positions on the racetrack. NASCAR doesn’t even advertise this; some prominent members of the media at Richmond last year didn’t even know if this was the case until clarifying with a NASCAR official. Even though this point system supposedly rewards winning, in reality, winning can be very overrated and unneeded.
So, how do we make this better? Well, there is no reason to change the fundamentals of the Chase. Four rounds, three races per round, win and in the next round, etc. The base system shouldn’t change for a long time, after 10 years of all of these different point systems it would just devalue the championship. I didn’t want to touch on the track because that would turn this little article into a book, and the final round of four at Homestead should stay exactly the way it is. But, regardless, here are just two little changes the Chase should have:
1. Cut the Chase field down to 13 cars
There are too many drivers making the Chase. Considering only the top 30 in points can make the playoffs, NASCAR puts more people in its playoffs than any professional sport outside of the NBA.
At the same time, it’s important to not cut teams/drivers that still have a shot at winning the championship. College football is a great example to point at for this, many great teams around the country finishing fifth-seventh in the polls every year and missing out on the four-team playoff picture.
Thirteen teams are a good number because you wouldn’t have to change the round-by-round elimination method much (Simply eliminate three per round instead of four) and the Chase field isn’t watered down but still has just about all of the viable championship contenders. There would be plenty of complaining from teams on this because making the Chase is a huge bonus for sponsors and money, but this would also, in theory make the remaining Chase spots more valuable.
How does this Chase field break down? The top 10 drivers by wins (With points being a tiebreaker) and the top three in points following Richmond that are not already in the Chase field. Using this method in 2014 would knock out Kurt Busch, Almirola, and Allmendinger. In 2015, Menard, Clint Bowyer, and Jeff Gordon would not be in the Chase. Yes, this means Gordon would not have had his final-four run in the last year of his career, but it should be remembered that Gordon had a bad regular season last year. Only 13 top 10s, three top fives, and no wins shouldn’t equal a comfortable cushion into the Chase.
Oh, and if this were to happen, the difference in making the Chase would have been one point instead of 17 last year.
2. Make Points Matter In Seeding, Make Wins Matter Even More
Point position should definitely have a say in the first, second, and third round of the Chase for those who advance. My system calls for five point increments per position. The easiest way to make that happen is to only have the end of round/regular season points relative to those who advance.
For example, right now Austin Dillon, Denny Hamlin, and Kasey Kahne are 12th, 13th, and 17th in points respectively. Let’s say Dillon and Kahne qualify for the Chase but Hamlin does not. Kahne would be given the same amount of bonus points for round one as Hamlin would if the roles were reversed. They would both be five points behind Dillon and seeded 13th in the Chase.
With that in mind, here would be how the first round of the Chase would begin before applying win bonuses:
1st- 2060
2nd- 2055
3rd- 2050
4th- 2045
5th- 2040
6th- 2035
7th- 2030
8th- 2025
9th- 2020
10th- 2015
11th- 2010
12th- 2005
13th- 2000
Now, as far as win bonuses go, wins would simply be worth ten points per round. Doing the math here is what the 2015 Chase Field for Round 1 would have looked like:
1st- Joey Logano: 2085
2nd- Kevin Harvick: 2080
2nd- Jimmie Johnson: 2080
4th- Matt Kenseth: 2075
5th- Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 2070
6th- Brad Keselowski: 2055
7th- Kurt Busch: 2040
7th- Martin Truex Jr.: 2040
7th- Kyle Busch: 2040
10th- Denny Hamlin: 2035
11th- Carl Edwards: 2030
12th- Jamie McMurray: 2015
13th- Ryan Newman: 2005
Some feel that the Chase needs to have a bye for the points leader for the first round. If we look at the 2015 grid here, there wouldn’t be a need for one. Kevin Harvick, the regular season points leader, would have a 50 point advantage over Carl Edwards, the first driver in danger of being eliminated.
This wouldn’t just apply for the first round of the Chase, this would apply to every round except for the Championship round. By using the previous round’s point standings, it ensures that a driver doesn’t just win the first race in the first two rounds and rides around in the next two races with nothing to race for.
This wouldn’t be a new system for NASCAR to use to crown its champion, it would simply be an improvement to a perfectly fine system as it is. Personally, I’ll always prefer a 36 race championship with no Chase, but we’re never going to get that. Especially with just how exciting it has made the battle for the championship the last two years, artificially or not.
