Posted on January 4, 2006

By Jeremy Dunn

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Why Jeff Gordon will not win the 2006 championship-

Ryan Smithson from Nascar.com named Jeff Gordon winning the 2006 championship as the number one prediction for 2006. Obviously, with Gordon’s triumphant history, it isn’t implausible by many means. But is he the best pick? There are a couple of reasons why I believe that Gordon’s fifth championship celebration will have to wait until at least 2007. While Gordon was able to vastly enrich his performance and handle on the intermediate tracks, the reasons for their struggles weren’t just limited to that. A lot of his lackluster performances were due to the breakdown in communication between him and his crew chief Robbie Loomis, which improved once Steve Letarte was seated atop the pit box. Another reason why Gordon didn’t run as well as in years past is the simple fact that he was outran by a lot of immensely improved drivers and teams. The competition is a lot closer now and it will be challenging for Gordon to jump from an 11^th place team to championship form. And the close competition among today’s competitors is a lot closer to home now for Gordon as he has been a step or two behind Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson and the #48 team for several years now, and then you have Kyle Busch and Brian Vickers continuing to develop into consistent front runners. Gordon may not win the championship but I will almost guarantee that he'll qualify for the chase for the championship.

Why Martin Truex Jr. will not win Rookie Of The Year in 2006-

Martin Truex Jr. has won two consecutive Busch Series championships, which is impressive, and he has built up an unusually sizeable fan base for a driver heading into his rookie season. Because of that, he has emerged as the popular pick to win the 2006 Rookie Of The Year. Truex will be among one of the most talented rookie classes we’ve seen in a long while. He was well above mediocre in his seven Cup starts in 2005, but even more impressive was Denny Hamlin. If last year’s seven starts each was a preview of what’s to come in 2006 then Truex wouldn’t even come close. Hamlin accumulated 806 points and three top ten finishes, which was far superior to Truex’s 589 total points and one top ten finish. I think that the rookie race will be a close one between four drivers with Truex finishing third behind Hamlin and Clint Bowyer. Reed Sorenson will have some say in the rookie battle as well. I’ll probably take some heat for this but if Busch Series championships determined who wins the Rookie Of The Year, then Dale Earnhardt Jr. would have defeated Matt Kenseth in 2000, Greg Biffle would have prevailed over Jamie McMurray in 2003, and Brian Vickers would have won the battle against Kasey Kahne in 2004.

Why Dale Earnhardt Jr. will not win the Daytona 500-

This is a simple one. Tony Stewart will bring home the checkered flag in the Great American Race. Stewart is well-overdue for a Daytona 500 victory as he has dominated the previous two, only to come up short to Earnhardt Jr. in 2004 and Jeff Gordon in 2005. Earnhardt Jr. will be tough to beat and far more competitive than last year, but he’ll have to watch ‘Smoke’ climb the fence in February.

Why Roush Racing will not have more than three drivers in the chase-

Roush Racing was able to place all five cars in the chase for the championship in 2005 and it was no fluke. It was simply Jack Roush’s year. Though he didn’t win the championship, his drivers Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, and Mark Martin swept the next three spots in the standings. Matt Kenseth finished seventh while Kurt Busch rounded out the top ten. In 2006, expect Roush Racing drivers to once again compete for the championship, but don’t expect the whole quintet. The competition is bound to catch up and the verdict on the performance of the Ford Fusion is still unknown. Roush Racing will still be able to squeeze three drivers into the top ten in September, it’s just a matter of which three. Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards are pretty much a given. It’s a tough choice between Mark Martin and Matt Kenseth as to who would complete the Roush Racing trio. Sorry McMurray fans, but I believe that he’ll have a difficult time making the cut for the chase.

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