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It's
that time of the year again. All of the pre-season power
rankings are being revealed. Now it's my turn as I'll start
with the back of the pack and work my way to the front.
40. 49-Brent Sherman, Schwan’s Home Service/Serta
Dodge (BAM Racing)
Brent Sherman was chosen as Ken Schrader’s
replacement after he opted to drive for the Wood Brothers in
2006. Before Sherman was signed to drive the #49 Dodge, he was
practically unknown to most NASCAR fans. He made 24 starts in
the Busch Series in 2005 and managed only one top ten. Sherman
will struggle in his rookie year, but the seat time he’ll gain
will be advantageous.
39. 96-Tony Raines/Terry Labonte, DLP
Texas Instruments Chevrolet (Hall Of Fame Racing)
Not only will HOF Racing operate as a brand new
team in 2006, but they are a single-car outfit as well. That’s
two strikes against them. The one thing going for them is the
fact that they’ll use the Joe Gibbs Racing engine package. By
placing two-time champion Terry Labonte in the car for the first
five races, they are virtually guaranteed a spot in the field,
no to mention that the data Labonte is going to provide will be
effective in this organization’s developing stages. With Labonte
behind the wheel, it’s possible that this may be a top 25 team,
but Tony Raines has shown a tendency to make costly mistakes
behind the wheel. Remember the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond
when he took out possible Chase contender Jamie McMurray?
38. 4-Scott Wimmer, Aero Exhaust Chevrolet
(Morgan-McClure Motorsports)
2005 prediction (29th) 2005 Results
(32nd)
After several years at Bill Davis Racing, Wimmer
received his pink slip via mail. As disappointing as that was
for Wimmer, even more disappointing was the fact that the firing
was revealed after most of the quality rides had already been
filled. In 2006, Wimmer will take over the #4 Morgan-McClure
Chevy, a team that has struggled since the late 1990’s. The good
news is that there will be more financial stability as Aero
Exhaust has stepped up as the primary sponsor. At times last
year, the #4 team seemed to have made some steps in the right
direction as Mike Wallace as able to pull out a top ten at
Daytona in July. I wouldn’t expect any dramatic improvements
from this group but they may squeeze in a couple of top tens.
37. 32-Travis Kvapil, Tide Chevrolet (PPI
Motorsports)
2005 prediction (30th) 2005 results
(33rd)
The 2003 Craftsman Truck Series champion
struggled immensely throughout his rookie year. Whether it was
lack of experience or the inferior Dodge Charger, Kvapil and the
#77 team were never able to get their season off the ground.
After scoring just two top tens all year, Kodak pulled out of
sponsorship and Roger Penske dismantled the #77 team. Kvapil
didn’t stay unemployed for too long as Cal Wells snagged up him
without hesitation. With Bobby Hamilton Jr behind the wheel in
2005, the Tide Ride suffered a tumultuous year and it’s unlikely
to get any better. Anything within the top 30 would be
considered a success for this team.
36. 7-Robby Gordon, Jim Beam/Harrah’s/Red Bull
Chevrolet (Robby Gordon Motorsports)
2005 prediction (33rd) 2005 results
(37th)
Just when you thought that the drivers/owners era
had become extinct, Robby Gordon decides to go against all odds
and take on that grueling mission. His first year as a
driver/owner was a disappointment as he consistently failed to
qualify for significant events such as the Daytona 500. Gordon
has always been considered a talented driver, his peers will
attest to that, but something has always held him back from
becoming one of the elite. I don’t think his single-car
operation is going to help matters, but he is expected to use
the DEI engine package, which should upgrade his restrictor
plate results. Gordon’s best shot to win in 2006 will be at the
two road courses.
35. 18-J.J. Yeley, Interstate Batteries Chevrolet
(Joe Gibbs Racing)
Yeley is an accomplished driver as he has enjoyed
great success in USAC. When he elected to make the move to stock
car racing, good things were expected out of him as he arrived
from the same background as Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Ryan
Newman. So far, Yeley has been unable to meet those high
expectations that were placed before him. He was respectable in
the Busch Series and has been nondescript in his handful of
Nextel Cup starts. I believe that Yeley has the potential for
great success in this sport and he may have some impressive runs
this year, but all in all, he’ll struggle with consistency.
34. 66-Jeff Green, Best Buy Chevrolet
(Haas Automation)
2005 prediction (34th) 2005
results (29th)
After two and a half abysmal years at Petty
Enterprises, Green anticipates his move to Haas Automation will
be an upgrade. The former #0 NetZero Chevrolet will appear
differently as Best Buy takes over as the primary sponsor and
the number converts to #66. Green should have a few solid
finishes as did Mike Bliss in 2005, but this team changes
drivers on an annual basis, sometimes semi-annually. Chances
are, Green will be looking for another ride for 2007.
33. 45-Kyle Petty, Wells Fargo Dodge
(Petty Enterprises)
2005 prediction (37th) 2005
results (27th)
What do Bristol and Dover have in common besides
high-banks and a concrete surface? Those two tracks are where
Kyle Petty scored his only two top tens in 2005. Normally, two
top tens aren’t held in high regard, but when you suffered the
misery that Petty and the #45 team have over the last several
years, any top ten finish is special. Despite the sponsor
search, the last few months have been exciting for the Petty’s
as a trio of champions have been added to the payroll. Robbie
Loomis, Todd Parrott, and Bobby Labonte will give Petty
Enterprises the jump-start they need in order to return to
glory. This move will benefit the #45 team as long as perpetual
sponsorship is established.
32. 55-Michael Waltrip, NAPA Auto Parts Dodge (Waltrip-Jasper
Racing/Bill Davis Racing)
2005 prediction (19th) 2005 results
(25th)
The exit from DEI came as a surprise to no one.
After he tangled with Dale Earnhardt Jr at Lowe’s back in May,
the writing was on the wall. It’s common knowledge that Waltrip
is Toyota’s future spokesman so it came as no surprise when he
collaborated with Bill Davis. Ensuring that he would be
guaranteed a spot in the field for the first five races, Waltrip
partnered with Doug Bawel, former part-owner of the #77 Kodak
Dodge, as he was able to collect those owner points positioning
him in the all-important top 35. Sound confusing? I wouldn’t
expect anything spectacular out of Waltrip and this group in
2006, but look out for Waltrip-Jasper Racing in 2007 as they’ll
receive all-encompassing support from Toyota.
31. 40-David Stremme, Coors Light/Lonestar
Dodge (Chip Ganassi Racing)
After eight years of driving the Coors Light
colors, Sterling Marlin will no longer be behind the wheel as he
will be replaced by rookie driver David Stremme. Stremme has
displayed flashes of excellence in the Busch Series but has been
unable to bring home the checkered flag. Almost winning will not
get it done in the Nextel Cup Series. I feel the same way about
Stremme as I do Yeley. Both drivers are loaded with talent, but
they may not be quite ready for the jump to NASCAR’s highest
level of competition.
30. 22-Dave Blaney, Caterpillar Dodge
(Bill Davis Racing)
2005 prediction (26th) 2005
results (26th)
Blaney isn’t considered a marketing dream, but so
far his talent has been able to keep him solidly employed. After
a disappointing season with Richard Childress Racing, Blaney
returns to Bill Davis Racing where he started his career and
where some of the best performances of his career have occurred.
This time Blaney will grip the wheel of the Caterpillar Dodge.
Even though it’s been a while since Bill Davis Racing has
enjoyed the fruits of triumph, Blaney will give him the best
shot since Ward Burton was in his peak in the early 2000’s. As
usual, Blaney will have some stellar runs, but overall I don’t
see this team as a steady front-runner.
29. 10-Scott Riggs, Valvoline Dodge (Evernham
Motorsports)
2005 prediction (28th) 2005
results (34th)
To the casual race fan, it will appear as if
there were no changes for Scott Riggs as he’ll remain in the #10
Valvoline ride. But if you look a little closer, it’ll become
apparent that Riggs will be driving a Dodge Charger owned by
Evernham Motorsports. After two less than stellar seasons with
MBV Motorsports, Riggs followed Valvoline over to the Evernham
camp where he’ll be teamed up with Jeremy Mayfield and Kasey
Kahne. His team will consist of what was the #9 team in 2005.
The move will be an upgrade for Riggs, but his full potential
will not be exhibited unless Evernham can get the balance of the
Dodge Chargers figured out.
28. 14-Sterling Marlin, Waste Management/Centrix
Financial Chevrolet (MB2 Motorsports)
2005 prediction (23rd) 2005
results (30th)
Sterling Marlin spent eight years as the
spokesman for Coors Brewing Company, and nearly handed them
their first championship since the glory days of Bill Elliott.
In 2002, the pieces were in place for Marlin to bring home the
title, but an unfortunate accident at Kansas late in the year
took him out of competition. Since then, Marlin has been unable
to return to championship form. Ultimately, the mediocre results
cost him his ride at Chip Ganassi Racing and he’ll start over
with MB2 Motorsports. Marlin will drive for the same team that
fielded Scott Riggs in 2005, so obvious improvements need to be
addressed, but Marlin will give this team some really
competitive finishes at the restrictor plate tracks and short
tracks.
27. 21-Ken Schrader, Little Debbie/Motorcraft
Ford (Wood Brothers Racing)
2005 prediction (38th) 2005
results (31st)
If Schrader is ever going win another Nextel Cup
race it’s going to be this year. While most teams appease their
sponsors with youthful talent, the old-school thinking of the
Wood Brothers prompted the hiring of 50-yearold Ken Schrader to
replace Ricky Rudd. Though I highly doubt that this will induce
a trend of hiring 50 + drivers, sorry Geoffrey Bodine, it is
refreshing to see a highly respected veteran land a quality
ride. With a little luck, this team could be a sleeper in the
race to the Chase, but in all likelihood, they’ll only be
revered as the top single-car operation.
26. 41-Reed Sorenson, Target Dodge
(Chip Ganassi Racing)
In 2004 it was Brian Vickers. Last year it was
Kyle Busch. And this year it’s Reed Sorenson. It has become
common for some drivers to be under the legal drinking age when
they begin their rookie season. Sorenson will assume the driving
role for the #41 Target Dodge led by Jimmy Elledge. This team
nearly won two of the final four races in 2005 with Casey Mears
behind the wheel, so clearly the team is established. Sorenson
will be fast at tracks like Atlanta and Texas, but he’ll
struggle at the shorter tracks. His potential will be
perceptible and he may win a race, but like Kyle Busch last
year, his lack of consistency will have him fighting for a spot
in the top 20 in the standings.
25. 43-Bobby Labonte, Cheerios Dodge
(Petty Enterprises)
2005 prediction (17th) 2005
results (24th)
When Kurt Busch announced his intentions of
leaving Roush Racing to drive for Penske Racing, we were all
caught off guard. But the shock came when Bobby Labonte revealed
his intentions to leave his 11-year employee Joe Gibbs, who he’d
won a championship with as well as 21 races, to drive for the
downward spiraling Petty Enterprises. The announcement came
shortly after Robbie Loomis announced his return to the
organization, so Labonte obviously saw potential with the
Petty’s. He’ll take over driving duties of the famous #43 Dodge,
a number that has seen victory lane 203 times. The Labonte/Petty
collaboration is one of the most popular we’ve seen in a long
while as those two last names have meant so much to the auto
racing world. In fact, the names Labonte and Petty have combined
for 13 total championships. Look for steady improvement from #43
group, and a possible win at Martinsville or New Hampshire, but
I don’t think the Petty’s are ready for a championship run quite
yet.
24. 07-Clint Bowyer, Jack Daniel’s
Chevrolet (Richard Childress Racing)
While Kevin Harvick’s long-term future at Richard
Childress Racing remains uncertain, the future of RCR may lie in
the hands of Clint Bowyer. His talent was showcased last year in
the Busch Series as he and the #2 AC Delco team gave Martin
Truex Jr and company a run for their money. Despite coming up
short, Bowyer enters his inaugural season as one of the
favorites to win the Rookie of the Year award. Last year wasn’t
a paramount year for the #07 team with Dave Blaney behind the
wheel, but a couple of decent runs late in the year have given
them some confidence. Joining Bowyer on the #07 team is his crew
chief in the Busch Series, Gil Martin, so there will be no
getting to know you process. Look for Bowyer to progressively
improve as the year advances. A win is not out of the question
for team Jack Daniel’s.
23. 01-Joe Nemechek, U.S. Army Chevrolet
(MB2 Motorsports)
2005 prediction (21st) 2005
results (16th)
He’s ranked 23rd but Nemechek and the
#01 Army team could very well be a top 15 team. Last year,
Nemechek was consistently fast on the intermediate and 2 mile
tracks. He came close to winning the spring race at California
but an engine miscue took him out of contention. Just three
months later at Lowe’s, Nemechek was well on his way to his
first Coca Cola 600 victory, but a blown tire with a handful of
laps to go cost him. It was bad luck or no luck at all for
Nemechek but the positive performances gives this team something
to look forward to in 2006. If Nemechek can keep his nose clean,
the #01 may win a race and possibly contend for a spot in the
Chase.
22. 1-Martin Truex Jr, Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet
(Dale Earnhardt, Inc.)
Martin Truex Jr has built an impressive resume
even before his rookie season commences. After winning the Busch
Series championships in successive seasons, Truex has become the
popular pick to win the Rookie Of The Year title. Truex is
expected to lean on his teammate and friend Dale Earnhardt Jr,
but Earnhardt will be in a fight of his own trying to enrich the
#8 teams results from a disastrous 2005 season. If Earnhardt Jr
is pre-occupied, could this create a problem for Truex? Much of
Truex’s success will be determined by how much DEI has improved
their program on the flat and intermediate tracks.
21. 88-Dale Jarrett, UPS Ford (Robert
Yates Racing)
2005 prediction (16th) 2005
results (15th)
It
would be ideal if Dale Jarrett could end his career the same way
that Rusty Wallace and Mark Martin have and will. But right now,
Jarrett and the #88 team haven’t shown many signs of returning
to prominence. The problem isn’t Jarrett’s driving ability, it’s
been the lack of chemistry between Jarrett and whoever is seated
atop the pit box. The #88 team has changed crew chiefs about as
much as Haas Automation has switched drivers so solid leadership
has been lacking. What Jarrett needs is the stability that he
had back in the late 1990’s. Robert Yates hopes that the
addition to Slugger Labbe will be the cure to this team’s funk.
I question Labbe’s loyalty as he walked out on Jeremy Mayfield
and Ray Evernham right in the middle of the Chase. If Labbe and
Jarrett click early on, we may see the #88 team cruise back into
the elusive top ten.
20th
to 1st will be posted later this week.
Check
out last years countdown
Prediction
Time!! The Top 40 Countdown: Part 1 (40th – 21st)
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