Posted on February 1, 2006

By Jeremy Dunn

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20. 31-Jeff Burton, Cingular Wireless Chevrolet (Richard Childress Racing)

2005 prediction (18^th) 2005 results (18^th)

This team, like a lot of others, is just one small improvement away from becoming a top ten team. Jeff Burton came close to winning on several of the short tracks in 2005, so obviously their focal point needs to be more on the Atlanta’s and California’s. Richard Childress has taken action to ensure innovation in their engine program, which will benefit all three RCR teams. Burton will once again be competitive on the shorter flat tracks and enhancement will be present on the faster tracks, but I think they’re about a year away from becoming a justifiable championship contender.

19. 11-Denny Hamlin, Federal Express Chevrolet (Joe Gibbs Racing)

In his seven Cup starts last season, Hamlin reminded me of Carl Edwards (without the back flips) when he first made the jump to the Cup level. Both drivers have attuned well to the Nextel Cup Series. Hamlin was able to right the ship of the floundering #11 team at Joe Gibbs Racing. The team will continue to mature together and become more consistent as the year progresses. It seems like every year a newcomer breaks through and really impresses. In 2006, my intuition is that the guy will be Denny Hamlin. I don’t think Hamlin will make a compelling championship run as Edwards did in his first year, but he will win a race or two.

18. 25-Brian Vickers, GMAC Chevrolet (Hendrick Motorsports)

2005 prediction (25^th) 2005 results (17^th)

Vickers is on the list of drivers right on the brink of winning their first race. On several occasions last year it looked as if Vickers was finally going to taste sweet victory. I think youthful inexperience hurt him at times in 2005, as uniformity was not considered a strong suit, but with two full years under his belt, Vickers should find the winner’s circle in 2006. I still believe that this team is prone to inconsistencies and because of that, I just do not see them as a top ten team.

17. 42-Casey Mears, Texaco/Havoline Dodge (Chip Ganassi Racing)

2005 prediction (20^th) 2005 results (22^nd)

I could probably cut and paste the comment for Vickers under Casey Mears. He’s another driver on the verge of breaking through. If it weren’t for a late race debris caution last fall at Texas and Homestead, Mears would already have two wins on his resume. In 2006, Mears will be Ganassi’s best shot at a spot in the Chase as he’ll become the senior driver at Chip Ganassi Racing. He’ll be teamed up with rookies Reed Sorenson and David Stremme. If Mears handles the ‘go-to-guy’ role well, the #42 team could sneak into the chase. I think Mears will have more success in the #42 than Jamie McMurray. This is because Mears seems committed to making the organization stronger as McMurray was aching to get out of dodge. I still believe that Mears will need to improve on the shorter tracks if he is going to qualify for the Chase.

16. 38-Elliott Sadler, M&M’s Ford (Robert Yates Racing)

2005 prediction (13^th) 2005 results (13^th)

When teams miss the Chase, changes are typically made and Robert Yates Racing was no omission. Sadler’s results were a downgrade compared to his career year in 2004. He was shut out of victory lane and only scored one top five. Tommy Baldwin, Kasey Kahne’s former crew chief, will call the shots for the #38 team in 2006. Baldwin and Sadler’s personalities will complement each other well. If they can avoid a summer slump like they endured in 2005, they will be a key player in the race to the Chase. Look for Sadler to get back into victory lane.

15.  9-Kasey Kahne, Dodge Dealers/UAW Dodge (Evernham Motorsports)

2005 prediction (10^th) 2005 results (23^rd)

Kasey Kahne is living proof that sophomore slumps really do exist. After being acknowledged as the next big thing in NASCAR, Kahne headed into 2005 as a projected championship contender. It didn’t take long for reality to set in. Kahne and the #9 team were never able to find the balance they needed within the Dodge Charger. For the most part, they didn’t even come close. For Kahne, the only bright spot in 2005 was winning the Chevrolet Revolution 400 at Richmond. Evernham decided to make wholesale changes within his entire organization as he shifted what was the #19 team over to the #9. Kahne will join forces with the same group that helped Jeremy Mayfield get into the Chase the last two years. Kahne seems to excel when his cars are fast and handling well, but if they miss the setup, he tends to overdrive the car, and therefore, he pays the price. Kahne will not be considered a serious title contender until he understands how to take care of the race car when it’s not handling favorably

14. 19-Jeremy Mayfield, Dodge Dealers/UAW Dodge (Evernham Motorsports)

2005 prediction (12^th) 2005 results (9^th)

If a spot in the Chase is anywhere within reach, Jeremy Mayfield will find a way in. Despite qualifying for the Chase two successive years, once again Mayfield finds himself buried in mid-pack in most of the preview guides. The #19 team will undertake a new look this year and we’re not referring to the paint scheme. The team Mayfield has grown accustomed to working with over the past several years has been transported over to Kahne’s side of the garage. The team that formerly made up Bill Elliott’s part-time effort will become the #19 team. I am still on the fence as to how this will play out. I still believe that Mayfield is Evernham’s best driver and gives him the most realistic shot at another Chase appearance.

13. 26-Jamie McMurray, Sharpie/IRWIN Tools/Crown Royal Ford (Roush Racing)

2005 prediction (9^th) 2005 results (12^th)

In 2004 and 2005, McMurray left the 26th race of the year in 11^th place in the standings, just one spot shy of where he needed to be in order to contend in the Chase For the Championship. McMurray’s absence in the Chase and the winner’s circle impelled him to make a career altering decision, as he’ll become the ‘new kid’ at Roush Racing. And who can blame him. In 2005, Roush Racing flat out dominated as all five cars won races and made the Chase. McMurray hopes his move from Chip Ganassi Racing to Roush Racing isn’t too late and that he will become apart of the winning tradition. McMurray should win a couple of races with this team and could very well make the Chase, but he and his new team must adapt to each other early on. Look for McMurray to be right in the thick of the race to the Chase.

12.  5-Kyle Busch, Kellogg’s Chevrolet (Hendrick Motorsports)

2005 prediction (27^th) 2005 results (20^th)

The term hot and cold accurately describes the 2005 season for Kyle Busch. Despite winning twice in his inaugural season, Busch suffered through inconsistency, especially early in the year. When Busch was on top of his game, he was competing for wins as he won at California and Phoenix, but he often made rookie mistakes, which ultimately cost him in a number of other races. Busch is still very young and has not fully developed into a championship contender, however, I do think Busch will be a solid top ten pick if he can curtail his mistakes.

                                 Chase For The Championship

11. 29-Kevin Harvick, GM Goodwrench Chevrolet (Richard Childress Racing)

2005 prediction (11^th) 2005 results (14^th)

Even though most of 2006 will be clouded with the rumors that Harvick will jump ship and become the face of Toyota, I have a hard time believing that this team will miss the Chase for three consecutive seasons. Both Harvick and Richard Childress will find a way into NASCAR’s rendition of the playoffs. Last year, Harvick and the #29 team were able to snap their dry spell with a win at Bristol in the spring, but after that, the season took a turn for the worse. Once September rolled around, Harvick and Childress were once again on the outside looking in. Despite the speculation that Harvick wants out of RCR, he is still committed to this team, and I believe he will be loyal to his boss of seven years and drive his heart out. Look for Harvick to squeeze into the Chase, which will make his assessment to leave RCR that much more intricate.

10.  8-Dale Earnhardt Jr, Budweiser Chevrolet (Dale Earnhardt, Inc.)

2005 prediction (5^th) 2005 results (19^th)

When the season started at Daytona last February, it seemed as if something was missing with the #8 team. Earnhardt Jr, who is accustomed to dominating races held at Daytona and Talladega, seemed noticeably less confident than usual. Did he already suspect that he was in for a long season? Earnhardt nation waited in front of the television each week hoping for some sign of improvement, but it wasn’t until the fall Atlanta race when we saw Earnhardt Jr really take control of a race. Even though he didn’t win that race, it showed that the Earnhardt Jr/Eury Jr reunion was paying dividends. As we embark on 2006, I still believe that Earnhardt Jr and the #8 team are a step or two behind the elite teams, but I feel that they have taken the right steps in improving this team, and I feel like they will qualify for the Chase.

9.  6-Mark Martin, AAA Ford (Roush Racing)

2005 prediction (2^nd) 2005 results (4^th)

Mark Martin’s original plan was to step aside from Nextel Cup competition after 2005, but his plan was altered when the whole McMurray/Ganassi/Busch/Penske saga began last summer. Martin returns for one last hurrah in 2006, which gives him one last shot at the championship that has eluded him throughout his illustrious career. Martin will be considered by many to be a strong championship contender as he has proven he can run with the best of the young guns. Martin has been labeled as a pessimist and usually depicts an all-business demeanor, but late last year, Martin really seemed to be enjoying himself as he was a reliable front-runner. As long as Martin continues to have fun, he’ll win races and could be a significant title contender.

8.  2-Kurt Busch, Miller Lite Dodge (Penske Racing)

2005 prediction (8^th) 2005 results (10^th)

When Kurt Busch decided to make the switch from Roush Fords to Penske Dodges, many were flabbergasted, especially since at the time, Roush Racing was the cream of the crop. He wasn’t even a year removed from his first championship when his intentions were revealed. Much to the dismay of Jack Roush, Busch asked and was eventually granted a release from his 2006 contractual obligations. Busch’s decision to jump ship tarnished his relationship with Roush, who is responsible for a lot of Busch’s success. After Busch’s regretful incident with the Maricopa County cops in Phoenix last fall, Roush Racing suspended Busch for the final two races as they ‘officially retired as Kurt Busch’s apologists’. Busch looks forward to starting over with a team that has only won once since 2002, which is when Busch won his first of fourteen races. I doubt that Busch will win as many races as he did at Roush Racing, but he is one of most talented drivers in the garage, and he’ll have an impact on this team. Look for the Miller Lite Dodge to appear in the Chase For The Championship.

7. 24-Jeff Gordon, DuPont Chevrolet (Hendrick Motorsports)

2005 prediction (3^rd) 2005 results (11^th)

Jeff Gordon won four races in 2005, including his third Daytona 500, yet his season will be characterized as the worst since his rookie campaign back in 1993. Everything seemed to be going well for Gordon and the #24 team early on in the season, but the turning point seemed to come at Dover in June, when Gordon was punted into the wall by his rival Tony Stewart. Gordon would spend the summer months searching for answers as he quickly faded out of the top ten and out of championship contention. Eventually, Robbie Loomis, Gordon’s crew chief of five years, decided to step down from atop the pit box and the 26 year-old Steve Letarte began calling the shots. The Gordon/Letarte combination began paying dividends almost instantly as they were able to win the Subway 500 at Martinsville in October after months of frustration. In 2006, Gordon will be out to prove that his absence from the top ten was a fluke and that his Drive For Five is still alive. It’s highly improbable that Gordon will miss the Chase again, but I think they still have to fill in that room for improvement before they can seriously contend for the title.

6. 17-Matt Kenseth, DeWalt Power Tools Ford (Roush Racing)

2005 prediction (6^th) 2005 results (7^th)

Sometimes a good start is the key to a successful season, but that wasn’t the case for Matt Kenseth in 2005. While Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, and Mark Martin were enjoying the fruits of Roush Racing’s dominance, the 2003 champion seemed lost. It’s not that Kenseth was performing terribly, he just couldn’t buy a break. Finally, around mid-summer, Kenseth and the #17 team were able to put behind all of the blown tires and engine miscues and compose a memorable comeback. In fact, after the Pocono 500 in June, Kenseth was 24^th in the standings. Just two months later, he had clawed his way up to 9^th in the standings and into championship contention. Though Kenseth was unable to pose any threat to Tony Stewart in the Chase, his appearance in the Chase was nothing short of spectacular. I wouldn’t count on Kenseth having to play catch-up again in 2006. In all likelihood, he’ll get off to a better start and have no trouble getting into the Chase.

5. 48-Jimmie Johnson, Lowe’s Chevrolet (Hendrick Motorsports)

2005 prediction (1^st) 2005 results (5^th)

Since his rookie season in 2002, Johnson has never finished a season outside of the top five in points. In two of those seasons, Johnson was the runner-up. His ‘close but no cigar’ championship misses are reminiscent to those of Mark Martin. Early in 2005, Johnson looked as if he was going to run away with the points lead, but around mid to late summer, his performance began to drop off. Johnson was able to win four races in 2005, including one in the final ten races, but once again he would come up short. Rumors of Chad Knaus’ departure began to run rampant after the season ended, but it appears that the two will be back together for the long haul. Look for another solid year out of the #48 team, but unless they can put together more consistency in the final ten races, they’ll come up short again.

4. 99-Carl Edwards, Office Depot Ford (Roush Racing)

2005 prediction (22^nd) 2005 results (3^rd)

Nobody had a break-out year quite like Carl Edwards. After he edged out Jimmie Johnson at Atlanta by only mere inches, it was clear that Edwards was going to be special. He verified that it was no fluke when he won at Pocono, one of NASCAR’s trickiest race tracks, especially for inexperienced drivers. Throughout the year, Edwards conducted himself like a veteran as he earned respect from his fellow competitors. Edwards has emerged as a strong championship threat and will likely live up to those expectations. First, he must overcome his inadequacy on the short tracks and road courses.

3. 12-Ryan Newman, Alltel Dodge (Penske Racing)

2005 prediction (4^th) 2005 results (6^th)

In 2005, Newman was right on the money on Fridays, but he was never really a serious championship contender as he and the #12 team suffered due to the discrepancies of the Dodge Charger. Despite his lack of speed on Sundays, Newman was consistent throughout the season, something that this team has struggled with, even when they were at their best. In the past, crew chief Matt Borland would take chances that seemed to do more harm than good. If they can better decipher when and when not to gamble, they might not have as many finishes outside of the top 30. If they can find some speed, which is very likely, and remain consistent, this team will be tough to beat, especially if the championship is on the line. Look for Newman to improve and benefit from his new teammate Kurt Busch.

2. 20-Tony Stewart, Home Depot Chevrolet (Joe Gibbs Racing)

2005 prediction (7^th) 2005 results (1^st)

By winning his second championship, Tony Stewart has moved a step closer to being considered one of the NASCAR elite. He joins Jeff Gordon as the only active driver to have won multiple championships. Stewart was able to finally kiss the bricks by winning the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis, the track he had fantasized about conquering since boyhood. Many attribute his success in 2005 to his new and improved attitude, but I think it had a lot to do with the communication with his team. No two people work together as well as Stewart and crew chief Greg Zipadelli. Their personalities almost complement each other perfectly. Stewart rivals Gordon as the most versatile driver in the garage as he can win at any type of venue on the NASCAR agenda. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if Stewart becomes the first back-to-back champion since Gordon in 1997 and 1998.

1. 16-Greg Biffle, National Guard/Subway Ford (Roush Racing)

2005 prediction (14^th) 2005 results (2^nd)

He is the 2000 Craftsman Truck Series Champion, the 2002 Busch Series Champion, and the 2006 Nextel Cup Champion. Well, not quite yet, but if I had to put my money on someone, it would be Greg Biffle. No driver displayed as much progress in 2005 than Biffle. He jumped from 17^th in the standings in 2004, to 2^nd in 2005. His win total tripled as it went from two in 2004 to six in 2005. His six wins were best among all drivers in the series. Biffle didn’t just win, but he was solid throughout the entire season. In fact, a vibration at Texas may have cost him his first championship. Despite coming up 35 points short of the championship, Biffle turned heads last season and is expected to do the same in 2006. Look for Biffle to become the first triple-crown winner by winning the championship in all three of NASCAR’s major series.

Check out last year's countdown

Prediction Time!! The Top 40 Countdown: Part 2 (20th to 1st)

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