Posted on February 28, 2008

Vickers Again Should Get The Free Pass, While Petty and Blaney Should Not

by Ron Thornton About The Author	Email   Print

The last time we checked in on our heroes using our tweaked qualifying format, David Gilliland, Jeremy Mayfield, Dave Blaney, and Kyle Petty would have been sweating it out to see if they might make the field in California through their qualifying efforts.  Then it rained.  I mean, Noah should have been the honorary starter at Fontana.

I took out the pencil and started cyphering, and though we came down different roads, the present system and our alternative version came up with the same result.  After putting the Top 20 from the Daytona 500 in the field and filling in the next 15 spots by using 2007 owner's points, we would have satisfied the need to fill in the first 35 positions. Then we would have handed Bill Elliott his former champion's provisional. According to the rules, we would then have gone to the Top 35 in current owner's points, which would have added Mayfield, Michael Waltrip, Gilliland, and Petty to the lineup.  Finally, we would then have went to the number of attempts made this season, which would only be Daytona at this early date, with 2008 points as the tie-breaker.  That would have placed Blaney, John Andretti, and Joe Nemechek in there, giving us the very same lineup that actually raced on Sunday / Monday. It would seem our alternative system has passed its first "rain test", with those racing in California just happening to be the 43 who most deserved to be there.

Thus far, no one would have gained or lost any lineup appearances had NASCAR adopted our proposed format tweak. Would California change that?  When it was all over on Monday afternoon, the first order of business would have been to lock in the Top 20 at Fontana through to the next race at Las Vegas.  Those drivers would have included...

Top 20 At California
(Position in 2007 Owner's Points)

1. #99 Carl Edwards (9)
2. #48 Jimmie Johnson (1)
3. #24 Jeff Gordon (2)
4. #18 Kyle Busch (22)
5. #17 Matt Kenseth (4)
6. #1 Martin Truex, Jr (11)
7. #20 Tony Stewart (6)
8. #29 Kevin Harvick (10)
9. #9 Kasey Kahne (20)
10. #12 Ryan Newman (13)
11. #83 Brian Vickers (38)
12. #31 Jeff Burton (8)
13. #2 Kurt Busch (49)
14. #6 David Ragan (24)
15. #16 Greg Biffle (14)
16. #8 Mark Martin (16)
17. #38 David Gilliland (32)
18. #7 Robby Gordon (28)
19. #07 Clint Bowyer (3)
20. #42 Juan Pablo Montoya (21)

All but two of the twenty would have been within the Top 35, but once again track performance should have earned Brian Vickers a free pass to Las Vegas, while Kurt Busch's finish would have opened up the former champion's provisional. The next fifteen positions would have been determined by 2007 Owner's points, and in that number we would have...

Next Best In 2007 Owner's Points

1. #5 Casey Mears (5)
2. #77 Sam Hornish, Jr (7)
3. #11 Denny Hamlin (12)
4. #88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr (15)
5. #01 Regan Smith (17)
6. #26 Jamie McMurray (18)
7. #43 Bobby Labonte (19)
8. #41 Reed Sorenson (23)
9. #96 J.J. Yeley (25)
10. #40 Dario Franchitti (26)
11. #19 Elliott Sadler (27)
12. #15 Paul Menard (29)
13. #28 Travis Kvapil (30)
14. #66 Jeremy Mayfield (31)
15. #70 Scott Riggs (33)

That is 35 locked in.  Dale Jarrett would then have been assured the former champion's provisional should his qualifying time prove below par, with Bill Elliott next in line (though I'm not sure if Awesome Bill is racing that entry or Jon Wood this week).  That would have left a dozen drivers looking for one of seven remaining positions.  Among them would have been...

Would Need To Qualify on Time
    
1. #22 Dave Blaney (34)
2. #45 Kyle Petty (35)
3. #21 Jon Wood/Bill Elliott (36)
4. #10 Patrick Carpentier (37)
5. #00 David Reutimann (39)
6. #44 Dale Jarrett (40)*
7. #55 Michael Waltrip (41)
8. #78 Joe Nemechek (42)
9. #84 A.J. Allmendinger (43)
10. #27 Mike Skinner (44)
11. #49 Ken Schrader (46)
12. #08 Burney Lamar (51)
13. #34 John Andretti (53)
*Qualify on time or use former champion's provisional

Of course, should it rain, it would be back to the pencil and pad to figure it all out once again.  For my money, Jarrett and Vickers should be locked in, while Petty and Blaney should need to qualify on time or hope for rain. However, our alternative view and the present reality are not the same.  Still, we can watch qualifying from Las Vegas on Friday afternoon on SPEED to see what might have been.

Next week, we'll review qualifying to see who would have run, and who would have sat, along with taking a look at how the Las Vegas results would have affected those who would have been locked in as they venture to Atlanta.  One thing I am sure of is that Brian Vickers should be racing in Las Vegas this weekend, but under today's format he still needs to qualify on Friday, while Dave Blaney and Kyle Petty, unfairly in my mind, do not.

You can contact Ron at thornton@speedwaymedia.com

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