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If the odds favor the guy
best over the last ten races he has run,
then expect Carl Edwards to once again
do well in Kansas to pick up the pace a
bit. In his last three starts there,
Edwards has managed a pair of Top Tens,
though last year's wreck does temper
somewhat our expectations for what he'll
accomplish this weekend. Even so, his
current ten race average should improve
if he can only better his less than
stellar result at Chicago with something
in the Top Thirty this Sunday.
It should be a bit tougher for Jimmie
Johnson to better his 2nd place run at
Chicago, but his ten race average should
not slip by much. The man currently with
the hot hand since July 12th has not won
in seven tries at Kansas, though more
often than not he has claimed a Top Ten
at the end of the day. As we have
discovered, one bad day could really
mess up one's title hopes, and this is
one race Johnson could ill afford to
mess up.
A couple of good days, on back to back
weekends, can also help one's position
dramatically. Greg Biffle takes his
winning streak to a track he won at a
year ago, where he has finished no worse
than 12th since 2003. Right now, the
Chase has become a three man race until
Lady Luck decides to abandon one or more
of these three.
It appeared for most of the season that
she was engaged to Kyle Busch, but that
relationship has turned to ice. Though
he might have dominated most of the
year, Busch has not done so lately and
he certainly has not at Kansas. He
finished seventh there a couple of years
ago, but his other three attempts has
found him outside of the Top Twenty.
Don't expect much from Jeff Burton. He
finished 5th a couple of years ago, but
that is sandwiched between 28th and 36th
place results. If he is going to
actually make a run to win this
championship, he is going to have to
start running up front where the big
points are, or wind up slipping out of
contention.
Odds are against Kevin Harvick extending
his string of eight Top Ten finishes,
though not impossible. He has managed
the feat twice in seven tries, including
finishing sixth a year ago. Doing better
than expectations on Sunday could go a
long way in keeping Harvick in position
should the leading trio falter.
History tells us to expect big things
from Tony Stewart and Clint Bowyer in
Kansas. Stewart wrecked there a year
ago, but while he has yet to win in
seven tries he can usually be expected
to leave with a bunch of points for his
efforts. Bowyer has only run there
twice, but 9th and 2nd are the kind of
results that make you all warm and fuzzy
about a place.
I'm picking Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jeff
Gordon to be near the front, at least
Top Fifteens, but I'm probably being
unfair to Gordon in saying that. Other
than a fuel pump issue that left him
39th a couple of years ago, he won the
first two events here and has four Top
Fives, including one in 2007's contest.
You know, this could end up being a race
Gordon fans may like a lot.
That won't be the case for Michael
Waltrip. His average finish at Kansas in
seven starts is 32nd, with an 11th place
finish his best back in 2004. Both Rusty
Wallace and Ricky Craven, in comparison,
each claimed four Top Tens in five
attempts. If I was looking for a ringer
for this one, it would be one of those
who retired gents.
Then again, until such time as Johnson,
Edwards, and Biffle stumble, no one else
has a shot at the crown. If history is
any indication, it is doubtful that will
take place in Kansas.. Doubtful, but not
impossible. That is why we'll be
watching this Sunday.
Most Points (Chicago to Dover) -
Chicago Points - Kansas Expectations
1. 1597 - Jimmie Johnson (2) - Chicago
(175) - Kansas (155)
2. 1574 - Carl Edwards (1) - Chicago
(72) - Kansas (155)
3. 1507 - Greg Biffle (6) - Chicago
(165) - Kansas (170)
4. 1429 - Kevin Harvick (4) - Chicago
(165) - Kansas (118)
5. 1417 - Tony Stewart (5) - Chicago
(160) - Kansas (165)
6. 1292 - Kyle Busch (3) - Chicago
(195) - Kansas (121)
7. 1244 - Jeff Gordon (12) - Chicago
(135) - Kansas (134)
8. 1235 - Dale Earnhardt Jr (7) -
Chicago (115) - Kansas (134)
9. 1231 - Clint Bowyer (10) - Chicago
(97) - Kansas (156)
10. 1198 - Jeff Burton (14) - Chicago
(106) - Kansas (84)
11. 1189 - Matt Kenseth (11) - Chicago
(151) - Kansas (94)
12. 1184 - David Ragan (8) - Chicago
(142) - Kansas (115)
13. 1182 - Denny Hamlin (9) - Chicago
(43) - Kansas (76)
14. 1160 - Martin Truex Jr (17) -
Chicago (143) - Kansas (92)
15. 1085 - Kasey Kahne (13) - Chicago
(118) - Kansas (106)
16. 1072 - Ryan Newman (19) - Chicago
(134) - Kansas (94)
17. 1061 - David Reutimann (15) -
Chicago (121) - Kansas (70)
18. 1042 - Jamie McMurray (16) - Chicago
(100) - Kansas (91)
19. 983 - Elliott Sadler (21) -
Chicago (127) - Kansas (127)
20. 963 - A.J. Allmendinger (24) -
Chicago (124) - Kansas (97)
You can
contact Ron at
thornton@speedwaymedia.com
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