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Officially, Jimmie
Johnson is closing in on an 80 point
bulge over Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle.
Yet, over the course of the last ten
events, Edwards and Johnson are in a
virtual tie. The significance of this is
that with the Chase format, among those
who actually made the Chase, you add up
their points from their last ten events,
tally in their pre-Chase win bonus, and
you have the season champion.
Over the course of the last ten events,
Edwards actually maintains a slight lead
over Johnson. Both hold a significant
lead over the rest of the pack, even
more so than in the official standings.
Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle, based on
the results of those past ten contests,
are more than a hundred points off in
the distance.
As we get closer to the end of the
season, these figures will closer
represent the official results. Up to
then, the secret is to match the result
of ten weeks ago with a similar result
in the upcoming race. As Edwards won at
Pocono, he would need to do the same at
Charlotte on Saturday night to maintain
his ten event 158 point per race
average.
He probably will not. Based on what he
has done there over the past couple of
years, compared to how others have run,
we could predict Edwards likely to
finish around seventh, about three
positions ahead of Johnson. Even so,
Edwards' ten race tally, the difference
between his Pocono finish and what could
be expected at Charlotte, would
represent a drop of 44 points, compared
to Johnson's 36. So, the gap between the
two would actually narrow slightly based
over the last 10 contests, but
essentially both should be expected to
remain in a tight race as they leave
North Carolina for Virginia.
The favorite for Saturday night is
probably Kasey Kahne, who has claimed
two of the last four run at this track.
Others expected to be up front include
Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt
Jr, and Jeff Burton. However, as long
as Johnson continues to avert disaster,
and Edwards avoids a repeat of
Talladega, all the rest will remain deep
in the wilderness as far as their
championship hopes are concerned.
In the spring, Biffle, Burton, and
Edwards all came home with a Top Ten at
Lowe's, while Johnson finished 39th with
engine problems. Should that result be
repeated, then the door could be opened
for others to challenge for the title.
Of course, you realize that predicting
the outcome of a race is like
forecasting the weather. I might
speculate sunshine for your favorite
driver, but I'd keep the rain coat close
by, just in case. It should be a fun
Saturday night in Charlotte.
Points (Pocono - Talladega) -
Pocono Pts - Lowe's Forecast
1. 1583 - Carl Edwards (1) - Pocono
190 - Lowe's 146
2. 1565 - Jimmie Johnson (2) - Pocono
170 - Lowe's 134
3. 1470 - Kevin Harvick (4) - Pocono
160 - Lowe's 100
4. 1461 - Greg Biffle (3) - Pocono 129
- Lowe's 109
5. 1401 - Tony Stewart (5) - Pocono
170 - Lowe's 142
6. 1310 - Clint Bowyer (8) - Pocono
150 - Lowe's 106
7. 1260 - Jeff Burton (10) - Pocono
100 - Lowe's 155
8. 1239 - Matt Kenseth (11) - Pocono
135 - Lowe's 138
9. 1233 - *David Ragan (12) - Pocono
160 - Lowe's 82
10. 1196 - Dale Earnhardt Jr (9) -
Pocono 132 - Lowe's 160
11. 1181 - Kyle Busch (13) - Pocono 55 -
Lowe's 170
12. 1163 - Jeff Gordon (7) - Pocono 134
- Lowe's 165
13. 1155 - Denny Hamlin (6) - Pocono 94
- Lowe's 97
14. 1030 - *David Reutimann (18) -
Pocono 73 - Lowe's 124
15. 1005 - *Martin Truex Jr (15) -
Pocono 118 - Lowe's 88
16. 989 - *Casey Mears (21) - Pocono
97 - Lowe's 127
17. 981 - *Kasey Kahne (14) - Pocono
151 - Lowe's 190
18. 976 - *Jamie McMurray (16) -
Pocono 143 - Lowe's 63
19. 964 - *Elliott Sadler (19) -
Pocono 82 - Lowe's 94
20. 963 - *Ryan Newman (17) - Pocono
121 - Lowe's 69
*Non-Chasers
You can
contact Ron at
thornton@speedwaymedia.com
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