By Bill Marx
Sporting News NASCAR Wire Service
Here’s a look at the top five drivers and five to watch in Sunday’s Amp Energy 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. All statistical references are for Sprint Cup races at Talladega unless otherwise indicated. Driver rating is based on the past nine races at the track.
1. Jimmie Johnson, 84.1 driver rating. Johnson has one win and four top fives in 15 starts, but he also has six DNFs—three for crashes—including in the April race. Everyone should know what’s at stake in the race. After all, it has been a topic of discussion since NASCAR released the 2009 Cup schedule last year. It’s easy to say all Johnson needs to do is stay out of The Big One. But that’s not entirely true. He needs to stay out of the early Big Ones. In April, Carl Edwards crashed a few hundred yards from the finish line and still finished 24th, which was worth 96 points. If that happens to Johnson on Sunday, he still would leave Talladega with the lead.
2. Mark Martin, 58.7. Martin is an example of when not to crash out of Talladega. In April, he was involved in a 14-car extravaganza on Lap 7 and he finished last. Johnson’s Big One came on Lap 180 (of 188) and he finished 30th—44 points more than Martin. Neither will look for trouble at Talladega—trouble finds you. Martin has two wins at Talladega in 43 starts.
3. Jeff Gordon, 84.9. Only Dale Earnhardt’s 10 Cup wins exceed Gordon’s six. In 2007, Gordon swept both races. Since 2004, Gordon has four wins and four finishes 36th or worse. Such is life at Talladega.
4. Tony Stewart, 92.4. Stewart finished second six times before getting his first and only win last October. He has nine top fives in 21 starts.
5. Juan Pablo Montoya, 81.0. Montoya won the pole in April and finished 20th. He finished second in April 2008 for his lone top 10 in five starts. Montoya is racing well on all types of tracks and has top fives in five of the first six Chase races.
Five to watch
6. Kurt Busch, 87.7. Busch is winless at Talladega but has 12 top 10s in 17 starts. His 12.1 average finish is best among active drivers with more than one start. He also is winless in 18 races at Daytona but has nine top fives there (10 top 10s). Busch understands the draft and knows how to compete at restrictor-plate tracks. It’s just a matter of time before he finally seals the deal at an RP track.
9. Denny Hamlin, 94.8. Hamlin has the best driver rating among drivers with more than one start. He has led laps in all seven of his starts and has two top fives. In the other five races, he has one DNF and four finishes 21st or 22nd.
13. Kyle Busch, 74.8. This will be Busch’s last start with Steve Addington as his crew chief. The two teamed up for Busch’s only top 10 at Talladega in nine starts—a win in April 2008. Busch has led significant laps the past three races, following up his win with finishes of 15th and 25th. He led a race-high 42 laps in April. Busch also has four DNFs, three for crashes.
24. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 90.1. Junior has five wins at Talladega, including a record four in a row, something even his father could not accomplish. This year has been a disaster. If Junior can find some of his restrictor-plate mojo from years past, it would make for quite a story. He finished second in April. He has eight top fives and 11 top 10s in 19 starts.
40. Brad Keselowski, 98.9. Speaking of big stories, Keselowski’s win in April remains one of the highlights of the season. Not only for his first victory in his fifth Cup start, but the way he and Edwards moved through the field glued to each other’s bumper on the last lap and capped it with the wild crash that resulted with Edwards’ car flying into the catch fence. Keselowski is back in James Finch’s No. 09 Chevrolet. But if he is to pull off another shocker, he must first make the field. He needs to qualify on speed on Saturday.
