Matty’s Picks – Vol. 1 – Bud Shootout – Daytona International Speedway

[media-credit name=”daytonainternationalspeedway.com” align=”alignright” width=”300″][/media-credit]Race No. 1 – Bud Shootout
Daytona International Speedway, February 18, 2012

Following my two months of moderate depression, its time to get the ball rolling in 2012! Between the major letdown of the Buffalo Bills’ 2011-12 season and the ever slumping Buffalo Sabres’ season in-progress, I am anxious for the engines to fire and for the sweet smell of race fuel to hit my nostrils. It has been a long off-season for race fans here in Western New York, despite having one of the mildest winters in recent history.

2011 Season Review

Since everyone knows the historical significance of Daytona and the Bud Shootout, I thought I would post some stats as far as how my picks fared throughout the 2011 season. Now, if you’re wondering why the numbers might not add up…I did not start my ‘Matty’s Picks’ column until the Dover race in May of last year.

We’ll take a look at my winner picks first…

My 28 winner picks last season averaged a finish just outside the Top 10, with an average finish of 10.8. 3 races (2011 All-Star Race, Kentucky, and Watkins Glen) I picked the eventual race winner, 10 races I had Winner Picks finish in the Top 5, and 3 more of my Winner Picks finished with Top 10’s. To sum that up, 16 of 28 winner picks last year finished with imaginary points in my Pick Um’ Challenge.

Here is the breakdown of the 14 drivers I picked last year, and the number of races I picked them as Winner Picks:

Driver Picks
Jimmie Johnson 5
Kyle Busch 4
Carl Edwards 3
Kevin Harvick 3
Denny Hamlin 2
Jeff Gordon 2
Marcos Ambrose 2
Matt Kenseth 1
Ryan Newman 1
Brad Keselowski 1
Clint Bowyer 1
Tony Stewart 1
Martin Truex Jr 1
Kurt Busch 1

These Winner Picks are slightly less than impressive, but if I were to take anything out of these 28 picks last season, it was that only once did one of my Winner Picks fail to finish the race. (Jimmie Johnson –October 15th, Charlotte)

Onto the Dark Horses…
I guess all-in-all it was an ok season in the world of Matty’s Dark Horse Picks. My Dark Horses averaged a finish in the top half of the field each week (15.6), and again just one DNF for all 28 Dark Horse picks last season. I didn’t manage to end up with a Dark Horse in Victory Lane last season, but did manage a silver medal in David Ragan’s runner up finish in the Coca-Cola 600. Beyond that pick last May, I managed 5 more Top 5’s for a total of 6 and 4 more Top 10’s.

Here’s the breakdown of the 15 drivers I picked last year as Dark Horses:

Driver Picks
A.J. Allmendinger 3
Juan Pablo Montoya 3
Clint Bowyer 3
Kasey Kahne 3
Marcos Ambrose 2
David Ragan 2
Mark Martin 2
Paul Menard 2
Greg Biffle 2
Brad Keselowski 1
Martin Truex. Jr 1
Brian Vickers 1
Reagan Smith 1
Jeff Burton 1
Joey Logano 1

So what did I take out of last season?

1. I earned a lot of brownie points with my girlfriend by picking Jimmie Johnson 5 times.
2. I lost a lot of brownie points with my mother by picking Kyle Busch 4 times.
3. Most race-winners come from drivers that are not considered “Dark Horses”.
4. If you’ve got a driver you’d like to see finish the race, send them to me (mattl@speedwaymedia.com) because of my 96.4% completion percentage.
5. Of my 3 Winner Picks, two of them happened while I was in attendance. (Follow me on Twitter @ML_B_Lo to find out if I am at the track on a given weekend)

Bud Shootout Picks
In case you are wondering how the race is going to go Saturday Night at Daytona, or how drivers qualify to race in the Bud Shootout, here’s the skinny:

The Bud Shootout field is comprised of drivers finishing among the top 25 in final NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points standings as well as active past winners of the Daytona 500, Coke Zero 400 and Shootout at Daytona. The 75-lap Shootout will consisit of two segments – 25 and 50 laps, with a 10-minute pit stop allowing teams the opportunity to change tires and FOX their chance to cash in on some commercial time. The Green Flag will fly at 8:29PM Eastern on Saturday Night on FOX.

Dark Horse Pick
Its tough to call any of the drivers in Saturday’s Bud Shootout a Dark Horse, because you have to have done something to even be on the entry list for the 187.5-mile dash. I’d like to think that my Dark Horse pick flies under the radar when most people talk about who they think will win Saturday night, and that is why I am considering him a Dark Horse this week.
Jamie McMurray won the 2010 Daytona 500, a year before NASCAR decided to break up the pack racing at superspeedways. From the brief practices earlier today, it looks like we could be heading back to the pack this year.

McMurray’s win in the 2010 was actually the second time he visited Victory Lane at Daytona, as he was the winner of the then Pepsi 400, the July race at the 2.5-mile superspeedway. McMurray was then in the No. 26 Crown Royal Ford for Roush Fenway Racing in 07′, but is back in the No. 1 Bass Pro Shops/Tracker Chevy for Earnhardt Ganassi Racing for this year’s Bud Shootout at Daytona.

Winner Pick
My birthday happens to fall on the same day as this year’s Daytona 500, and in an effort to earn an extra gift from my mother next week, I’m going with her guy this week in the Bud Shootout.

Since it seems like the pack is back in style, I have to go with the guy that can “see the air” in the draft. Simply based off his finishes last year (24th & 19th) at Daytona with the two-car-tango, Dale Jr is ready for the draft, and the pack racing that NASCAR is trying to get back to.

With the two-car racing that was seen last year, drivers were forced to pick a dancing partner and stick with them for the duration of the race. Rather than making “friends” out on the track, drivers were simply looking for “a friend”. There are 25 cars entered for Saturday’s Bud Shootout, and I would bet that the other 24 drivers are more than willing to hook up with Jr for a run to the front. So instead of having one friend like last year, Jr will have 24 friends looking for his rear bumper on Saturday night.

That’s it for this week, but stay tuned throughout Speed Weeks for more picks and insightful thoughts on the 2012 racing action.

Until next time….You stay classy NASCAR NATION!