NASCAR: Tracking The Race to The Chase With Two Races To Go

Following Bristol, the Chase is looking towards being set in stone with the top 12 drivers.

Currently, the battle looks as follows: 

Pos Name Total Points Points Separation
8. No. 17 Matt Kenseth 3095 +175
9. No. 48 Jimmie Johnson 3077 +157
10. No. 2 Kurt Busch 3073 +153
11. No. 16 Greg Biffle 3055 +135
12. No. 33 Clint Bowyer 2920 +100
13. No. 1 Jamie McMurray 2820 -100
14. No. 5 Mark Martin 2819 -101
15. No. 39 Ryan Newman 2802 -118
16. No. 9 Kasey Kahne 2784 -136
17. No. 00 David Reuitmann 2765 -155
18. No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2750 -170
19. No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 2728 -192
20. No. 56 Martin Truex Jr. 2660 -260

All the drivers can still either fall out or jump in as in two races, a 360 point swing is possible. So who will be in and who will be out?

A way to predict could be based off of past track performance, as shown through average finish. 

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Pos Name Avg. Finish Atlanta Avg. Finish Richmond
10. No. 2 Kurt Busch 18.7 17.8
11. No. 16 Greg Biffle 15 16
12. No. 33 Clint Bowyer 16.4 10.2
13. No. 1 Jamie McMurray 20.9 25.2
14. No. 5 Mark Martin 17.3 12
15. No. 39 Ryan Newman 17.9 11.4
16. No. 9 Kasey Kahne 16 18.2
17. No. 00 David Reuitmann 27.3 19.4
18. No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12 13.2
19. No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 18.3 23.4
20. No. 56 Martin Truex Jr. 24.6 23.7

Based upon this, you can analyze who could possible get the most points.

Following Atlanta, Busch (+144) and Biffle (+135) would still be 10th and 11th, above Bowyer, who’d sit 12th. Behind him, Martin would be 13th, now 104 behind. After him, it’d go McMurray (-115), Newman (-139), Kahne (-136), and Earnhardt Jr. (-158). Montoya and Truex, meanwhile, would now be locked out. 

Following Richmond, Busch (+230), Biffle (+230), and Bowyer (+110) would make the Chase. Behind Bowyer, it’d be Martin (-110), Newman (-127), McMurray (-160), Kahne (-160), and Earnhardt Jr. (-167).

This is obviously a guess as to what could happen as sometimes people can perform above average (win) or below (wreck) so anything and everything can happen. That is why we watch and what makes us fans.

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