Following Bristol, the Chase is looking towards being set in stone with the top 12 drivers.
Currently, the battle looks as follows:
|Pos||Name||Total Points||Points Separation|
|8.||No. 17 Matt Kenseth||3095||+175|
|9.||No. 48 Jimmie Johnson||3077||+157|
|10.||No. 2 Kurt Busch||3073||+153|
|11.||No. 16 Greg Biffle||3055||+135|
|12.||No. 33 Clint Bowyer||2920||+100|
|13.||No. 1 Jamie McMurray||2820||-100|
|14.||No. 5 Mark Martin||2819||-101|
|15.||No. 39 Ryan Newman||2802||-118|
|16.||No. 9 Kasey Kahne||2784||-136|
|17.||No. 00 David Reuitmann||2765||-155|
|18.||No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.||2750||-170|
|19.||No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya||2728||-192|
|20.||No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.||2660||-260|
All the drivers can still either fall out or jump in as in two races, a 360 point swing is possible. So who will be in and who will be out?
A way to predict could be based off of past track performance, as shown through average finish.
|Pos||Name||Avg. Finish Atlanta||Avg. Finish Richmond|
|10.||No. 2 Kurt Busch||18.7||17.8|
|11.||No. 16 Greg Biffle||15||16|
|12.||No. 33 Clint Bowyer||16.4||10.2|
|13.||No. 1 Jamie McMurray||20.9||25.2|
|14.||No. 5 Mark Martin||17.3||12|
|15.||No. 39 Ryan Newman||17.9||11.4|
|16.||No. 9 Kasey Kahne||16||18.2|
|17.||No. 00 David Reuitmann||27.3||19.4|
|18.||No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.||12||13.2|
|19.||No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya||18.3||23.4|
|20.||No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.||24.6||23.7|
Based upon this, you can analyze who could possible get the most points.
Following Atlanta, Busch (+144) and Biffle (+135) would still be 10th and 11th, above Bowyer, who’d sit 12th. Behind him, Martin would be 13th, now 104 behind. After him, it’d go McMurray (-115), Newman (-139), Kahne (-136), and Earnhardt Jr. (-158). Montoya and Truex, meanwhile, would now be locked out.
Following Richmond, Busch (+230), Biffle (+230), and Bowyer (+110) would make the Chase. Behind Bowyer, it’d be Martin (-110), Newman (-127), McMurray (-160), Kahne (-160), and Earnhardt Jr. (-167).
This is obviously a guess as to what could happen as sometimes people can perform above average (win) or below (wreck) so anything and everything can happen. That is why we watch and what makes us fans.